Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed2e…d12e politics 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$4
other 34% −$6
sports 11% −$2
economics 5% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -3.4% -12.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 84 -5.9% -14.9% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 79
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage393d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+93%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 18 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $3 $0 -8%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1 $0 -19%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $60 $0 -1%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $122 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $4 $0 -9%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $1 $0 -20%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $127 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $2 $0 -24%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 09 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 03 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 01 $1 $0 -14%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $124 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $56 5d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 9d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 12d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $58 15d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $58 18d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 36d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 100d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 100d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $56 100d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $56 103d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 103d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 107d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.55 (match) · 390 history records