Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed31…b870 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$742 (-2%) realized −$296 · open −$446
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,563per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$2,751
30 days−$1,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$335
sports 25% −$708
other 10% −$1,480
politics 2% −$96
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.5% +7.2% 75% 75% -10.5%
≤30d 14 +1.4% -8.3% 71% 71% -23.3%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 40% -13.7%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 40% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 40% -13.7%
10% -18.2% 32% -21.9%
15% -26.1% 24% -29.5%
20% -33.4% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$501 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$4,752
Realized−$296
Unrealized−$446
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage76d
Avg bet$1,563
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $4,322 $4,743 +$420 (+10%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 58¢ $875 $9 −$866 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $194 +$106 +55%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $174 +$126 +72%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $340 −$338 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $204 +$96 +47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$9 +19%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $696 +$304 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $880 +$120 +14%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $295 +$205 +70%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $769 −$762 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $778 +$234 +30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2,370 −$2,370 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,560 +$380 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,725 +$775 +45%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 17 $12,060 −$422 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $3 $0 +6%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $760 +$40 +5%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $720 −$96 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 14 $398 +$15 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 14 $1,820 +$180 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 14 $3,172 +$180 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 12 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 12 $279 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $89 −$38 -43%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 12 $2,810 +$234 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $285 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 59¢ $299 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 59¢ $299 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $183 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 58¢ $174 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $204 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $157 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $194 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $696 10d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 69¢ $696 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $3 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $6 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $3 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $880 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $9 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 10d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $295 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $515 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $3 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $158 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $49 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,751.88 · official $4,780.38 (match) · 306 history records