Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed35…bd18 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-20%) realized −$172 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$185
other 12% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -40.3% -46.0% 25% 25% -33.3%
all 9 -47.0% -52.0% 22% 22% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.0% 22% -35.5%
10% -56.6% 22% -41.7%
15% -60.8% 11% -47.3%
20% -64.6% 11% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$54 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage211d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 55¢ 62¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 21 $89 +$31 +35%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $91 +$179 +197%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 17 $191 −$96 -50%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 24 $113 −$100 -89%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Apr 24 $20 −$13 -66%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets Nov 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 54¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 56¢ $51 13h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 80¢ $50 13h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $121 36d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $89 38d
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse BUY Flavio Cobolli 61¢ $81 39d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $91 40d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) SELL Pistons 52¢ $91 40d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Pistons 53¢ $92 40d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Pistons 53¢ $100 40d
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot SELL Valentin Vacherot $13 64d
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Valentin Vacherot 71¢ $50 64d
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Valentin Vacherot 71¢ $63 64d
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen SELL Jan-Lennard Struff 17¢ $7 64d
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 49¢ $20 64d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 49¢ $20 64d
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $19 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.67 · official $113.67 (match) · 18 history records