Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed37…2f93 tech 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,816 (+6%) realized +$2,332 · open −$516
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%78W / 58L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$102
14 days+$572
30 days+$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$553
tech 24% −$11
finance 17% +$26
politics 11% −$515
sports 2% +$105
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 40% -11.3%
≤30d 15 +4.6% -5.4% 60% 53% -3.5%
≤90d 133 +12.7% +2.0% 58% 50% -5.7%
all 136 +12.4% +1.7% 57% 49% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 49% -5.7%
10% -8.0% 38% -14.7%
15% -16.9% 27% -23.0%
20% -25.1% 20% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$38 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$1,427
Realized+$2,332
Unrealized−$516
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses78 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage95d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 86¢ $712 $1,228 +$515 (+72%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 14¢ $712 $197 −$515 (-72%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? Up 84¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? Down 13¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $1,585 −$220 -14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $1,109 −$286 -26%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $730 +$195 +27%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $682 +$66 +10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,173 +$143 +12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $519 +$126 +24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,524 +$219 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $678 +$330 +49%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $559 +$80 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $219 −$4 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $64 +$44 +69%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $4,744 +$24 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,279 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -99%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $19 −$4 -21%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $389 −$370 -95%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $371 −$205 -55%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $111 −$55 -49%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $50 −$35 -71%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $21 −$1 -5%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $157 −$9 -5%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $201 +$48 +24%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $198 +$28 +14%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $528 −$51 -10%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $193 −$69 -36%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $415 +$110 +27%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $408 +$375 +92%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $668 −$1 -0%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $383 −$47 -12%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $260 −$38 -15%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $146 −$34 -23%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $247 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 18 $6 +$1 +24%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 15? May 18 $220 +$16 +7%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 15? May 18 $137 +$3 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 15? May 18 $28 +$14 +51%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 15? May 18 $215 +$19 +9%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 15? May 18 $209 +$60 +29%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $253 −$119 -47%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $266 −$35 -13%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $282 −$49 -17%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $114 −$112 -98%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $122 −$27 -23%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $51 +$31 +62%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $199 +$45 +23%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $160 +$24 +15%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $151 +$61 +41%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $277 +$32 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 7¢ $0 45m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 14¢ $2 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 39¢ $29 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 38¢ $48 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 38¢ $56 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 41¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 33¢ $21 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 33¢ $51 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 28¢ $42 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 87¢ $65 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 86¢ $129 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 87¢ $65 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 87¢ $65 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 85¢ $21 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 85¢ $21 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 85¢ $11 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 82¢ $50 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 83¢ $4 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 79¢ $50 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 78¢ $26 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 84¢ $112 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 84¢ $127 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 84¢ $127 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 84¢ $127 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 83¢ $5 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 83¢ $9 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 79¢ $117 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 79¢ $119 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 7¢ $10 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 65¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,426.81 · official $1,426.81 (match) · 1903 history records