Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xed38…5a86 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 40% −$13
sports 6% +$21
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -2.5% -11.8% 5% 3% -9.6%
all 110 -2.8% -12.0% 10% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -20.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -28.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage118d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $283 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $236 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $374 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $413 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $212 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $172 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 30 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $418 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $273 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $443 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $470 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 2h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $216 29d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 32d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 32d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 36d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $268 37d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $268 48d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $283 48d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $283 48d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $236 49d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $236 49d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $186 49d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $186 50d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $166 50d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $166 50d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $189 50d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $189 51d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $162 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.91 · official $102.91 (match) · 344 history records