Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xed38…a7aa sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,846 (+65%) realized +$1,846 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$6
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,549
other 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 5 -34.2% -40.5% 20% 20% -14.9%
≤90d 36 -26.8% -33.8% 31% 25% -7.6%
all 48 +9.0% -1.4% 33% 27% +42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 27% +42.4%
10% -10.8% 23% +28.8%
15% -19.5% 21% +16.4%
20% -27.4% 17% +4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$23 · ×6.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage149d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Altmaier vs. Bergs: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $101 −$3 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic Jun 11 $21 +$9 +43%
Rainbow Six Siege: 6Targets Esports vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - Asia Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Focsani: Alexia Mihaela Man vs Alexia Trasca Jun 05 $225 −$24 -11%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Julia Stamatova vs Tian Jialin May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Stefania Bojica vs Anastasia Lizunova May 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Boyer vs. Lokoli: Match O/U 21.5 May 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Tristan Boyer vs. Laurent Lokoli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Bengaluru 2 (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Poonacha/Myneni May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South Americ May 08 $132 +$139 +105%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner May 08 $10 −$7 -73%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods - Map 1 Winner May 08 $407 −$250 -62%
Brazzaville: Franco Ribero vs Matyas Cerny May 07 $143 +$295 +207%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew (BO3) - Exort Series Contend May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew - Map 1 Winner May 05 $71 +$12 +17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 05 $10 +$18 +180%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Gro May 05 $10 +$8 +76%
Garin vs. Choinski: Match O/U 22.5 May 05 $30 +$30 +98%
Garin vs. Choinski: Match O/U 21.5 May 05 $10 +$8 +76%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe Academy vs L Guide Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: Both Teams to Score May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs Benched gods - Map 2 Winner May 03 $61 −$60 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Charaeva vs Kasatkina May 01 $12 −$1 -6%
Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs Dplus - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Game Handicap: CAG (-1.5) vs Dplus (+1.5) Apr 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Telstar 1963 (-1.5) Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $10 +$1 +9%
SK Poltava vs. FK Polissia: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $82 −$40 -48%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs EC BANGA (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play- Apr 10 $175 −$16 -9%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ACROBATS - Map 1 Winner Apr 02 $100 +$31 +31%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ayan Mar 29 $100 −$2 -2%
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Dinamo Minsk Mar 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Basement Bobs vs Vexar (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Mar 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Honor of Kings: Mighty Tiger Gaming vs JLY (BO5) - KPL Growth League G Mar 16 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $50 −$28 -56%
RCD Mallorca vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $250 +$34 +14%
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Mar 13 $30 +$14 +46%
Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Mar 13 $21 +$15 +68%
Hellas Verona FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Mar 01 $100 +$1,657 +1657%
Will 1. FC Slovácko vs. Bohemians Praha 1905 end in a draw? Feb 03 $56 −$51 -90%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $100 −$2 -2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 26 $20 −$2 -9%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 26 $4 −$2 -60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 26 $5 −$3 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Altmaier vs. Bergs: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $61 1h
Altmaier vs. Bergs: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $41 1h
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic SELL Ivanovic 99¢ $30 13d
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic BUY Ivanovic 70¢ $5 13d
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic BUY Ivanovic 68¢ $5 13d
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic BUY Ivanovic 68¢ $5 13d
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic BUY Ivanovic 68¢ $5 13d
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic BUY Ivanovic 69¢ $1 13d
Rainbow Six Siege: 6Targets Esports vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - Asia BUY 6Targets Esports 11¢ $1 16d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend $1 16d
ITF Focsani: Alexia Mihaela Man vs Alexia Trasca BUY Alexia Trasca 54¢ $101 20d
ITF Focsani: Alexia Mihaela Man vs Alexia Trasca BUY Alexia Trasca 56¢ $101 20d
ITF Focsani: Alexia Mihaela Man vs Alexia Trasca BUY Alexia Trasca 61¢ $10 20d
ITF Focsani: Alexia Mihaela Man vs Alexia Trasca BUY Alexia Trasca 61¢ $10 20d
ITF Focsani: Alexia Mihaela Man vs Alexia Trasca BUY Alexia Trasca 61¢ $1 20d
ITF Focsani: Alexia Mihaela Man vs Alexia Trasca BUY Alexia Trasca 57¢ $1 20d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Julia Stamatova vs Tian Jialin BUY Tian Jialin $1 34d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Stefania Bojica vs Anastasia Lizunova BUY Anastasia Lizunova $1 34d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Stefania Bojica vs Anastasia Lizunova BUY Anastasia Lizunova $1 34d
Bengaluru 2 (Doubles): Dev/Sinha vs Poonacha/Myneni BUY Dev/Sinha 19¢ $2 40d
Boyer vs. Lokoli: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 41d
Tristan Boyer vs. Laurent Lokoli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $101 41d
Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska $1 43d
Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska $1 43d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South Americ SELL largadosypelados 100¢ $270 46d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South Americ BUY largadosypelados 71¢ $101 46d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South Americ BUY largadosypelados 24¢ $5 46d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South Americ BUY largadosypelados 23¢ $26 46d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner SELL largadosypelados $0 46d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner SELL largadosypelados $3 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records