Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

ED 0xed39…493b other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$851 (-53%) realized −$840 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR19%break-even

Win rate19%3W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$81per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$569

7 days−$542

14 days−$852

30 days−$852

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +19%

net ROI/market (all)-47.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-27.9%	-34.8%	23%	23%	-50.9%
≤30d	16	-41.4%	-47.0%	19%	19%	-61.1%
≤90d	16	-41.4%	-47.0%	19%	19%	-61.1%
all	16	-41.4%	-47.0%	19%	19%	-61.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.0%	19%	-61.1%
10%	-52.1%	19%	-64.8%
15%	-56.7%	19%	-68.2%
20%	-60.9%	19%	-71.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -41% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -5% → late -78% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$110 vs −$91 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$89

Realized−$840

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)19%

Wins / losses3 / 13

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage8d

Avg bet$81

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	14¢	12¢	$50	$41	−$9 (-18%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	12¢	10¢	$20	$17	−$2 (-12%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 25	$22	−$21	-98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$77	+76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$253	−$250	-99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$203	−$200	-99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 23	$31	+$157	+509%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$182	+$95	+52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 18	$154	−$150	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$153	−$150	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	27h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	27h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	27h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	27h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$22	27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$203	42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	42h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	SELL Yes	100¢	$187	3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	16¢	$31	4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$26	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	30¢	$204	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	60¢	$202	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$277	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$81	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$154	8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$153	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.57 · official $88.57 (match) · 25 history records