Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed3e…87ab other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+10%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$7
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.9% -1.5% 40% 40% +1.1%
≤30d 5 +8.9% -1.5% 40% 40% +1.1%
≤90d 5 +8.9% -1.5% 40% 40% +1.1%
all 5 +8.9% -1.5% 40% 40% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 40% +1.1%
10% -10.9% 40% -8.6%
15% -19.5% 40% -17.4%
20% -27.4% 40% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 $0 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.66 · official $1.66 (match) · 10 history records