Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed40…5657 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$333 (-20%) realized −$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$604
7 days−$335
14 days−$335
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$616
crypto 30% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.2% -34.1% 43% 29% -30.4%
≤30d 7 -27.2% -34.1% 43% 29% -30.4%
≤90d 8 -36.3% -42.4% 38% 25% -39.2%
all 8 -36.3% -42.4% 38% 25% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 25% -39.2%
10% -47.9% 25% -45.0%
15% -52.9% 12% -50.3%
20% -57.5% 12% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$191 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage146d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $42 −$14 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $550 −$544 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $413 +$137 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $208 +$269 +129%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Apr 20 $209 −$209 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $550 46h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $550 47h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $413 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $477 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 2d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 145d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 145d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records