Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed43…b8d3 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$135 (+17%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$9
sports 39% +$130
world 7% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.3% -16.1% 30% 30% +5.1%
≤30d 20 -7.3% -16.1% 30% 30% +5.1%
≤90d 20 -7.3% -16.1% 30% 30% +5.1%
all 20 -7.3% -16.1% 30% 30% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 30% +5.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 30% -5.0%
15% -31.5% 20% -14.2%
20% -38.2% 10% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$7 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $41 +$17 +42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $64 −$7 -11%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 27 $77 −$14 -18%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $30 −$26 -86%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $80 +$19 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$14 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $57 −$14 -24%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $61 +$61 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$1 -7%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 26 $10 −$4 -37%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $126 +$88 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $43 1m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 26m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $57 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $64 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 35¢ $64 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $77 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 79¢ $44 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $0 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $11 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records