Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed44…4f76 sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (265 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,767 (+53%) realized +$17,014 · open −$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate47%49W / 55L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day264.8pace
Fees−$826est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (265 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+67.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +269.1% +233.9% 46% 37% -19.3%
≤30d 104 +85.4% +67.7% 47% 18% -15.1%
≤90d 104 +85.4% +67.7% 47% 18% -15.1%
all 104 +85.4% +67.7% 47% 18% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +67.7% 18% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here +51.7% 13% -23.2%
15% +37.0% 12% -30.6%
20% +23.6% 12% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +176% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
25.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$231 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$17,014
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses49 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$826
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 79
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$397
Trades / day264.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 39¢ 42¢ $121 $127 +$7 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 57¢ 58¢ $51 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 51¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+97%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 27¢ 0¢ $248 $0 −$248 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $57 +$2,138 +3753%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$61 -236%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 15 $14 −$402 -2939%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$31 +634%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 15 $7 +$87 +1314%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Jun 15 $383 +$448 +117%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1460%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship Jun 15 $6 −$47 -824%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 15 $88 +$1,150 +1305%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $22 −$22 -102%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $28 −$25 -91%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 15 $66 +$747 +1133%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $194 −$410 -212%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner Jun 15 $64 −$2,480 -3890%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 +$72 +522%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,042 −$1,371 -132%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 15 $9 −$34 -358%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$27 +287%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $208 −$167 -81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou Jun 15 $21 +$970 +4633%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $43 −$50 -116%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $420 −$290 -69%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Jun 15 $88 +$645 +729%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $160 −$227 -143%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro Jun 15 $11 +$97 +893%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P Jun 15 $4,578 −$5,960 -130%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $38 −$48 -127%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $862 +$343 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,046 +$127 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $727 −$55 -8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,397 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,289 +$43 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,300 −$205 -16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,195 −$131 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $394 +$18 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $103 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $275 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $64 +$10 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $66 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $275 −$16 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $218 −$26 -12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $698 +$7 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $335 −$15 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $48 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $216 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $29 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $210 −$50 -24%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $188 −$10 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 86¢ $31 1m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 84¢ $30 2m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 23¢ $61 3m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $78 4m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 59¢ $120 7m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 55¢ $35 7m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $70 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $82 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 45¢ $151 11m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $2 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $71 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $68 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 40¢ $86 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $80 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 65¢ $208 15m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 50¢ $3 17m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $69 18m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 45¢ $81 18m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $43 21m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 55¢ $20 22m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $21 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 65¢ $76 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 67¢ $81 28m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 50¢ $104 33m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $19 34m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $80 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 45¢ $13 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $8 36m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $3 36m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 66¢ $151 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.43 · official $183.43 (match) · 3500 history records