Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed45…0d29
crypto · 412 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,384 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,272 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,923
Realized+$1,272
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses181 / 152
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions93
Markets (closed)333 / 412
History coverage53d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 93 History 333 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$103
14 days+$38
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 81¢ $822 $924 +$102 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $211 $221 +$10 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 84¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+69%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 80¢ $82 $75 −$6 (-7%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $68 $73 +$5 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $49 $72 +$23 (+47%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $73 $66 −$6 (-9%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 64¢ 48¢ $86 $64 −$22 (-26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 19¢ $90 $55 −$35 (-38%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 57¢ $61 $55 −$6 (-10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $46 $41 −$4 (-10%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 88¢ 72¢ $44 $36 −$8 (-18%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $51 $33 −$18 (-35%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 92¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 64¢ $30 $28 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -97%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $5 +$9 +171%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +286%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $68 +$3 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +35%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -54%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $840 +$12 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $60 +$2 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $20 +$8 +40%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 $0 +8%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +14%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $34 +$4 +11%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$16 +312%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $8 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $26 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $9 +$26 +280%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 +$40 +1927%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% +$503
crypto 20% +$37
politics 9% −$42
other 7% −$10
sports 7% +$575
finance 3% +$179
economics 0% +$42
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 4m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $7 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $3 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $23 1h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $31 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $30 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $12 11h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $7 11h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +69.4% +53.2% 75% 32% -2.8%
≤30d 261 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 28% -6.7%
≤90d 333 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 30% +1.3%
all 333 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 30% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 30% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 24% -8.4%
15% -16.9% 22% -17.2%
20% -25.0% 20% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,923.12 · official $2,921.91 (match) · 3500 history records