Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed49…7d89 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$59 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 26% −$6
politics 26% −$5
economics 14% −$3
sports 13% −$3
tech 10% −$2
crypto 5% +$4
other 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.7% +11.1% 100% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 2 +22.7% +11.1% 100% 50% +11.2%
≤90d 5 +10.0% -0.4% 100% 20% -0.2%
all 60 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.8%
10% -17.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 3% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$589) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage241d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$20 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $45 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 26 $43 $0 +1%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Feb 27 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $41 +$1 +2%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 04 $28 +$13 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jan 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will Phil Galfond win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jan 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 25? Dec 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 24? Dec 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 24 $82 +$5 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,200 on November 10? Nov 21 $4 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 9? Nov 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $110 on November 13? Nov 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 5? Nov 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 5? Nov 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 31? Nov 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 1? Nov 05 $6 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 31? Nov 05 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 26? Oct 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 24? Oct 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $330 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 24 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Oct 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Oct 24 $300 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Oct 24 $800 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 24 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $1,280 −$1 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $1,487 −$1 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 24 $1,454 −$1 -0%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $1,710 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $296 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $963 $0 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $281 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $305 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $452 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $66 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $46 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? BUY No 98¢ $45 71d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $45 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $43 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? BUY No 99¢ $43 106d
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? BUY Yes 97¢ $42 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on February 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? BUY No 98¢ $41 138d
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 69¢ $28 143d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $11 192d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 97¢ $5 199d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 94¢ $86 209d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 25? BUY No 100¢ $6 209d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 209d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 95¢ $82 212d
Will the price of Solana be less than $110 on November 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 224d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 224d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 224d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 224d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,200 on November 10? BUY No 95¢ $4 224d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 5? BUY No 100¢ $6 228d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 5? BUY No 100¢ $5 228d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 1? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 234d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 234d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 234d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 239d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $624 240d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $625 240d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $568 240d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.88 · official $62.88 (match) · 145 history records