Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

ED 0xed4b…5a9a other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$9 (-12%) realized −$31 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-30.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-22.8%	-30.1%	50%	38%	-25.2%
≤30d	8	-22.8%	-30.1%	50%	38%	-25.2%
≤90d	8	-22.8%	-30.1%	50%	38%	-25.2%
all	8	-22.8%	-30.1%	50%	38%	-25.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.1%	38%	-25.2%
10%	-36.8%	38%	-32.3%
15%	-42.9%	38%	-38.9%
20%	-48.5%	25%	-44.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.62 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized−$31

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)8 / 12

History coverage5d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	100¢	$4	$27	+$22 (+491%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$4	$5	+$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	+$3	+55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5	+$6	+109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$15	+$7	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$1	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$5	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$5	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$5	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$15	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.11 · official $40.11 (match) · 16 history records