Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed4c…03ca weather 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$85 (+5%) realized +$195 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day81.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% −$81
sports 32% −$75
other 5% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -4.9% -13.9% 2% 2% -16.9%
≤30d 86 -4.9% -13.9% 2% 2% -16.9%
≤90d 86 -4.9% -13.9% 2% 2% -16.9%
all 86 -4.9% -13.9% 2% 2% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 2% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 2% -24.9%
15% -29.7% 1% -32.1%
20% -36.6% 1% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$4 · ×24.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 84
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day81.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 14¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 +$5 +35%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $241 −$54 -22%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $4 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Norway Vs Se Jun 22 $100 −$89 -89%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $76 +$173 +226%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 24? Jun 22 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $40 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 22 $40 −$10 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? Jun 22 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? Jun 22 $40 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 22 $40 −$3 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 22 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 23? Jun 22 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 22 $5 $0 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 21 $50 −$21 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 21 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 21 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? Jun 21 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $12 −$6 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 21 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$4 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 19m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 39m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 39m
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $47 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $53 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 73¢ $77 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $110 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $50 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $91 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 82¢ $4 5h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $2 5h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2 5h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Norway Vs Se SELL Yes 9¢ $11 6h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Norway Vs Se BUY Yes 82¢ $100 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $249 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $76 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 62¢ $29 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 63¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 79¢ $29 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 24? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 85¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 85¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? SELL No 64¢ $30 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.40 (match) · 225 history records