Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed4c…1720 crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$17 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%18W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -22.5% -29.9% 30% 26% -29.9%
≤30d 27 -22.5% -29.9% 30% 26% -29.9%
≤90d 27 -22.5% -29.9% 30% 26% -29.9%
all 63 -14.4% -22.5% 29% 24% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 24% -16.2%
10% -30.0% 22% -24.3%
15% -36.7% 22% -31.6%
20% -42.9% 22% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage132d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 06 $13 −$13 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 06 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 06 $2 −$1 -41%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 06 $2 +$4 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 05 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 05 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 05 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 05 $12 −$3 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 05 $16 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 05 $20 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 05 $15 −$5 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 05 $8 +$4 +57%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 05 $15 +$3 +22%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 05 $11 −$9 -88%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 05 $9 −$2 -19%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 05 $18 −$3 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$10 +98%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 05 $17 −$7 -39%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 05 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 05 $12 +$39 +312%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 05 $19 −$19 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.58 · official $2.58 (match) · 312 history records