Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed4d…036c crypto 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate87%103W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$10
14 days−$108
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$80
other 10% −$66
sports 1% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.2% -4.8% 88% 38% -5.8%
≤30d 42 -5.0% -14.1% 83% 19% -11.3%
≤90d 91 -1.7% -11.1% 86% 18% -10.4%
all 118 -0.6% -10.1% 87% 16% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 16% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$36 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses103 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage106d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $39 −$7 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $36 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $31 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 +$5 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $22 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $120 −$98 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $117 +$3 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $105 +$9 +9%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $99 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $80 +$6 +7%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $144 +$5 +3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $75 +$42 +56%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $157 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $154 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $147 +$8 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $139 +$6 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $129 +$11 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $125 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $117 +$8 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $105 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $86 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $82 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 28 $82 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $88 −$34 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $84 +$9 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $89 +$11 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $95 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 23 $87 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? May 22 $85 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $64 +$6 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? SELL No 78¢ $32 50m
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $39 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $36 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 83¢ $26 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 97¢ $24 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 90¢ $22 5d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 14¢ $8 8d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 17¢ $14 8d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 84¢ $120 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $120 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $117 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $113 8d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? SELL No 100¢ $114 8d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 92¢ $49 9d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 92¢ $56 9d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? SELL No 99¢ $105 9d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 93¢ $99 9d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? SELL No 100¢ $99 9d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? BUY No 95¢ $95 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? SELL No 100¢ $86 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 93¢ $80 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 62¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 9d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $31 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $57 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records