Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed4e…061f crypto 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate90%119W / 13L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$17
politics 24% +$9
other 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$3
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 8 -24.9% -32.1% 75% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 26 -6.5% -15.4% 92% 4% -9.7%
all 132 -2.1% -11.4% 90% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 15% -9.4%
10% -19.9% 7% -18.0%
15% -27.6% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses119 / 13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)132 / 138
History coverage657d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 96¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 40¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 15? Jun 21 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 9? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 24? May 26 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 23 $181 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 03 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? May 03 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? Apr 22 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? Apr 17 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? Apr 08 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 05 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $167 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 23? Mar 24 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 21? Mar 22 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 11? Mar 14 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 7? Mar 10 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $169 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 03 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? Mar 01 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 24? Feb 25 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 10? Feb 11 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 08 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $149 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January? Feb 01 $6 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Feb 01 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $80 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $79 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 74¢ $2 10d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 10d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY No 88¢ $7 10d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $6 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $101 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $99 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $175 31d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $181 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $164 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $166 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 62d
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 63d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 81¢ $5 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $168 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $175 72d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $172 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $175 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $173 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $167 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $164 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $160 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $169 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $163 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $159 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.30 · official $101.30 (match) · 316 history records