Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed4f…0608 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate74%25W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$46
sports 24% −$22
other 12% −$17
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 35% -9.4%
≤30d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 35% -9.4%
≤90d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 35% -9.4%
all 34 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 35% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 35% -9.4%
10% -21.7% 24% -18.0%
15% -29.3% 21% -25.9%
20% -36.2% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses25 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $37 +$4 +10%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$11 +212%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 56¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $4 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $2 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $30 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $37 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.34 · official $5.34 (match) · 76 history records