Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed52…7f9f world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$9
politics 25% $0
other 15% $0
sports 12% +$6
economics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 38% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 25 -1.7% -11.1% 24% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 56 +5.7% -4.4% 27% 2% -10.0%
all 72 +7.8% -2.5% 39% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 7% -9.6%
10% -11.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -20.3% 4% -26.2%
20% -28.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage482d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $26 −$2 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $13 −$2 -16%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $33 −$3 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $65 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $16 −$1 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $69 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $69 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 49¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 49¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 49¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 54¢ $26 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $26 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $22 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $22 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $19 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $13 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $15 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $23 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $4 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $26 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $26 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records