Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed53…d482 world 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% $0
other 20% +$1
politics 16% +$1
sports 10% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 43 +1.0% -8.6% 37% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 7% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage289d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $92 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $62 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $3 $0 +14%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 US Open? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 16m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $24 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $18 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $42 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $26 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 176 history records