Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed59…d0c2 world 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$15
politics 32% −$1
other 18% −$1
sports 12% −$5
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.1% -21.4% 38% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 22 -7.6% -16.4% 18% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 69 -3.8% -13.0% 29% 3% -10.0%
all 83 -6.1% -15.0% 34% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -10.3%
10% -23.1% 2% -18.8%
15% -30.6% 1% -26.7%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage524d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $76 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 −$1 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $200 −$7 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $66 −$3 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $133 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $87 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $44 −$2 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 −$1 -46%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $20 $0 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 12 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $24 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 399 history records