Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed5a…656c sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$501 (+4%) realized +$514 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%29W / 19L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,071now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$539
other 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +6.4% -3.7% 60% 58% -4.6%
≤30d 48 +6.4% -3.7% 60% 58% -4.6%
≤90d 48 +6.4% -3.7% 60% 58% -4.6%
all 48 +6.4% -3.7% 60% 58% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 58% -4.6%
10% -12.9% 54% -13.7%
15% -21.3% 52% -22.0%
20% -29.1% 42% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$217 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,071
Realized+$514
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage5d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ 100¢ $500 $685 +$185 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 72¢ 96¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 66¢ 55¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $102 −$11 -10%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $169 −$166 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $110 +$59 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $83 +$27 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$48 +138%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,023 −$870 -43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $754 +$135 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $575 +$347 +60%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $103 +$110 +108%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $512 −$500 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $102 +$86 +84%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $102 +$43 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $102 +$79 +78%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $307 +$185 +60%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$67 +66%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $103 +$122 +118%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $999 +$1,117 +112%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $492 −$492 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $511 −$511 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $247 −$247 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$8 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 −$3 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $102 +$79 +78%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$67 +66%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $205 +$138 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$99 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$52 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$54 +53%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 +$52 +51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $280 +$256 +91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $143 +$138 +97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $102 +$41 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $514 +$677 +132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $512 +$432 +84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $650 +$121 +19%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$82 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $102 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 67¢ $91 16m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 72¢ $102 19m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $509 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $102 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 73¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 58¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 71¢ $169 3h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $169 3h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 64¢ $110 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $83 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $83 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $35 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 61¢ $889 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $889 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $754 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 52¢ $754 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $1,134 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $921 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $575 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $512 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $189 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $102 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $145 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $182 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $492 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $102 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $102 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $307 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 47¢ $103 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,071.38 · official $1,071.38 (match) · 96 history records