Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed5a…c9fb other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$1
other 31% +$2
politics 13% $0
economics 9% +$1
tech 7% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 31% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 31% 0% -10.3%
all 44 +1.9% -7.8% 41% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 2% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage294d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $76 +$4 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $17 −$3 -19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $37 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 +$2 +148%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $8 $0 +6%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 05 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 02 $22 +$1 +2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $39 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $39 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $38 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $30 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $23 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $38 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $32 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $8 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $38 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $31 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $7 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $37 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $42 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $42 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records