Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed5b…8e60 sports 1038 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,177 (-24%) realized −$1,148 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%442W / 589L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day57.3pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$278
other 18% +$110
world 1% −$15
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +8.2% -2.1% 44% 43% -12.2%
≤30d 221 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 40% -32.6%
≤90d 1031 -3.0% -12.3% 43% 42% -12.4%
all 1031 -3.0% -12.3% 43% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 42% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 41% -20.8%
15% -28.3% 39% -28.4%
20% -35.3% 34% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$1,148
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses442 / 589
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions96
Markets (closed)1031 / 1038
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 96 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 18¢ 89¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+404%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 19¢ 40¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+111%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 32¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? No 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? No 21¢ 95¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+344%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 32¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+73%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Don Lemon sentenced to prison? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026? No 7¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? No 7¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? No 10¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 19 $1 +$1 +119%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 +$1 +86%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $1 +$2 +158%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $1 +$1 +109%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $2 +$1 +55%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $1 +$2 +238%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $1 +$2 +152%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 19 $1 +$1 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 +$2 +109%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 18 $2 +$2 +105%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 +$1 +67%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 +$12 +388%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $9 −$4 -46%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +53%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $1 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 11h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $1 11h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $1 12h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $1 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 13h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY Yes 45¢ $1 14h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $1 16h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $1 17h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $1 17h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 53¢ $1 20h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 53¢ $1 20h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 38¢ $1 20h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 43¢ $1 22h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 43¢ $1 22h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 41¢ $1 24h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $2 25h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 47¢ $1 26h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 29¢ $1 27h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $1 27h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 43¢ $1 28h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 43¢ $1 28h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.67 · official $122.56 (match) · 3500 history records