Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xed5e…1aea other 76 markets active 6h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%18W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$14
politics 14% −$7
other 9% +$8
sports 3% +$21
crypto 2% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +4.1% -5.8% 25% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 58 -1.4% -10.8% 19% 12% -10.2%
all 74 +1.4% -8.3% 24% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 14% -9.5%
10% -17.1% 14% -18.1%
15% -25.1% 11% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses18 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage602d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $124 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $9 +$5 +50%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $98 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $211 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $105 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $99 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $41 −$1 -2%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 5h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 8h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 30h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 32h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 9d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $9 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 14d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 21d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 30d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 31d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 31d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 32d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 32d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 35d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.01 · official $83.01 (match) · 270 history records