Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed60…c574 other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%35W / 50L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$0
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$22
other 34% $0
politics 8% −$1
sports 8% +$1
finance 3% −$8
crypto 1% +$7
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 8% -9.4%
≤30d 30 -3.8% -12.9% 33% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 41 -3.1% -12.3% 32% 5% -9.3%
all 85 -2.6% -11.9% 41% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 6% -9.3%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -28.0% 1% -25.9%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses35 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage477d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $29 +$2 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $181 −$5 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $240 −$15 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $94 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $166 +$18 +11%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $183 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $183 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $374 +$7 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $544 −$3 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $363 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $202 −$5 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $428 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $445 +$3 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $197 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $500 −$4 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $299 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $210 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $286 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $382 −$11 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $152 +$4 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $235 +$36 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $199 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $159 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $4 −$1 -18%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $315 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $207 −$8 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $898 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $898 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $988 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $897 +$1 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $80 −$4 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $22 $0 -2%
Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? May 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 13 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $24 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $169 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $75 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $107 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $53 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $96 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $150 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $61 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $4 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $180 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $32 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $135 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $183 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $183 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $71 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $71 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $183 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $183 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $102 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records