Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xed60…5ec3 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$49 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%41W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$266
world 18% +$54
tech 14% +$108
politics 12% −$45
sports 11% +$73
crypto 8% −$3
culture 7% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -62.7% -66.3% 33% 33% -48.3%
≤30d 3 -62.7% -66.3% 33% 33% -48.3%
≤90d 3 -62.7% -66.3% 33% 33% -48.3%
all 97 -14.5% -22.7% 42% 38% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 38% -10.6%
10% -30.1% 30% -19.2%
15% -36.8% 23% -27.0%
20% -43.0% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses41 / 56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage265d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 15 $15 +$9 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 13 $30 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 13 $7 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 09 $30 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 08 $80 +$4 +5%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Feb 02 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 02 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $17 −$17 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 29 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 27 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $40 +$35 +88%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $180 +$58 +32%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $30 −$14 -47%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $10 +$15 +150%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16? Jan 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 14 $40 −$11 -28%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $80 −$10 -13%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 14 $70 +$15 +21%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $70 +$10 +15%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $10 $0 -3%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $350 +$72 +21%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 13 $5 +$11 +223%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $41 +$10 +25%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 09 $30 −$19 -62%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 05 $100 +$35 +36%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2 Dec 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 202 Dec 03 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $30 +$13 +45%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Dec 01 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Nov 24 $30 +$7 +25%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 21 $60 +$25 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $26 19h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 38h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $13 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $23 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 129d
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 129d
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 129d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 133d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 133d
ICE shooter charged by March 31? SELL No 84¢ $22 139d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 71¢ $59 139d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 140d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 0¢ $2 140d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 60¢ $50 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.12 · official $43.12 (match) · 405 history records