Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed62…c51d
weather · 388 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$310 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$371 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized−$371
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses97 / 224
Open positions66
Markets (closed)321 / 388
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day124.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 66 History 321 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$409
14 days−$371
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 10¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? No 63¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? No 56¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 67¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? No 70¢ 63¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? No 67¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 1¢ 18¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+2154%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 70¢ 51¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 17¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+155%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 4¢ 27¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+582%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Yes 50¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 15? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 64¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 43¢ 17¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 10? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +306%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +1428%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 14 $22 +$39 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 90¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 90¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 90¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL Yes 82¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 38m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 22¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 6¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 52m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 10¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 52m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 19¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -7.4% -16.2% 29% 27% -29.6%
≤30d 321 -4.8% -13.8% 30% 28% -25.2%
≤90d 321 -4.8% -13.8% 30% 28% -25.2%
all 321 -4.8% -13.8% 30% 28% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 28% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 25% -32.3%
15% -29.6% 23% -38.9%
20% -36.5% 18% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.87 · official $62.06 (match) · 1675 history records