Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed65…6673 weather 369 markets active 3h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$437 (+0%) realized +$439 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate73%268W / 100L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$943
14 days−$861
30 days−$894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$17
world 13% +$220
crypto 2% +$12
other 1% +$108
sports 0% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -27.1% -34.0% 55% 55% -47.4%
≤30d 56 -25.1% -32.3% 55% 38% -17.5%
≤90d 228 -1.6% -11.0% 68% 33% -7.3%
all 368 -1.4% -10.8% 73% 27% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 27% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 13% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 8% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$53 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$439
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses268 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)368 / 369
History coverage143d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 44¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+390%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+104%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $156 −$152 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $156 +$19 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $132 +$24 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $99 +$23 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $412 −$335 -81%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $79 +$36 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $654 −$654 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $494 +$96 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $58 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$29 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $270 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $350 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $851 +$50 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$6 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 07 $344 +$73 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $619 +$81 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $230 +$40 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 04 $252 +$18 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $361 +$41 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $14 −$13 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $105 +$21 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $53 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $488 +$59 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $112 −$112 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 29? May 30 $260 +$53 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $330 +$44 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 29? May 29 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 28? May 29 $127 +$37 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28? May 29 $358 +$34 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 26? May 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 26? May 27 $125 +$18 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 26? May 27 $393 −$52 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $10 −$6 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 25? May 26 $178 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 25? May 26 $351 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 24? May 25 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 23? May 24 $626 +$51 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 23? May 23 $26 −$23 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 22? May 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 20? May 22 $59 −$26 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 14? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on June 19 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $156 19h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $152 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $156 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $45 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $18 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $79 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $78 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $412 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.87 · official $20.87 (match) · 2168 history records