Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed65…b1b2 other 129 markets active 1d ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,258 (-32%) realized −$6,133 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%56W / 67L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$1,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$568
7 days+$652
14 days+$794
30 days+$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$212
politics 38% −$6,240
world 3% +$225
sports 2% +$53
crypto 2% −$146
culture 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.4% +4.4% 75% 75% +13.6%
≤30d 24 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 58% +5.5%
≤90d 24 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 58% +5.5%
all 123 -15.4% -23.5% 46% 46% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 46% -40.4%
10% -30.8% 40% -46.1%
15% -37.5% 33% -51.3%
20% -43.6% 24% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -25% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$160 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$1,025
Realized−$6,133
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses56 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)123 / 129
History coverage595d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $500 $374 −$126 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $254 +$267 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $251 +$73 +29%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $302 +$73 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$66 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $540 +$143 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $152 −$150 -98%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $153 +$347 +226%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pr Dec 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Dec 06 $20 +$6 +30%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 30 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Pri Nov 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 08 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 08 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2 Nov 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Nov 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $100 +$13 +13%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Nov 02 $75 −$4 -6%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 31 $100 +$45 +45%
Kansas State vs. Kansas Oct 26 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 20 $100 +$52 +52%
French election called by October 31? Oct 19 $90 +$82 +91%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 05 $75 +$22 +30%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during events with Turkish president on Septembe Sep 25 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 25 $97 +$48 +49%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Sep 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? Aug 18 $15 +$16 +108%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Aug 18 $25 +$39 +156%
Will Florian Lipowitz finish in the top five at the Tour de France 202 Aug 18 $50 +$73 +145%
F1 Belgian Grand Prix: Safety Car? Jul 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $153 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 37h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 46h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $302 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $153 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $153 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 79¢ $35 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 49¢ $102 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 50¢ $102 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 9d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $504 10d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY No 40¢ $102 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.62 · official $1,024.62 (match) · 274 history records