Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
ED 0xed68…3555 crypto 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%98W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$439
7 days+$641
14 days+$470
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$329
sports 27% +$423
other 9% −$52
politics 1% +$90
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.1% -6.7% 74% 52% +1.3%
≤30d 136 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 49% -8.7%
≤90d 136 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 49% -8.7%
all 173 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 46% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 46% -8.4%
10% -21.2% 40% -17.2%
15% -28.8% 29% -25.2%
20% -35.8% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$35 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses98 / 75
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage589d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $401 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$19 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$96 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$78 +52%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $111 +$66 +59%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $502 +$164 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 −$111 -73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $345 +$266 +77%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 −$122 -80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $151 +$62 +41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $152 +$78 +51%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $257 +$134 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $333 +$228 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $28 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $14 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $41 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $247 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $241 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $203 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $200 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $212 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $254 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $211 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 97¢ $230 14h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 98¢ $176 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 389 history records