trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +8.7% | -1.7% | 100% | 0% | -1.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +8.7% | -1.7% | 100% | 0% | -1.7% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +8.7% | -1.7% | 100% | 0% | -1.7% |
| all | 18 | -27.4% | -34.3% | 50% | 28% | -20.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.3% | 28% | -20.8% |
| 10% | -40.6% | 11% | -28.4% |
| 15% | -46.3% | 6% | -35.3% |
| 20% | -51.6% | 6% | -41.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $76 | $69 | −$7 (-9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out in 2025? | Jun 19 | $20 | +$2 | +9% |
| Maduro mugshot released by Monday? | Jan 04 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | Jan 04 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? | Jan 03 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? | Nov 05 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Kraken IPO in 2025? | Oct 12 | $20 | +$1 | +7% |
| Russian strike on Poland by September 30? | Oct 12 | $58 | +$3 | +4% |
| US recession in 2025? | Oct 12 | $20 | +$2 | +12% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Oct 04 | $10 | +$2 | +17% |
| U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1? | Sep 30 | $30 | −$18 | -58% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? | Sep 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? | Sep 23 | $10 | −$4 | -44% |
| Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025? | Sep 21 | $10 | −$7 | -68% |
| Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? | Sep 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? | Sep 20 | $20 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus | Sep 20 | $20 | +$3 | +14% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 20 | $40 | +$12 | +30% |
| Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Jul 28 | $20 | +$43 | +214% |