Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed68…0b23 politics 86 markets active 3d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-8%) realized −$27 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% +$8
other 22% +$9
world 21% −$8
finance 11% −$21
tech 6% −$9
sports 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 -3.1% -12.3% 30% 30% -26.2%
≤90d 59 -17.5% -25.4% 39% 39% -26.0%
all 70 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 43% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 43% -17.4%
10% -26.3% 43% -25.3%
15% -33.4% 33% -32.5%
20% -39.9% 26% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)70 / 86
History coverage107d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+22%)
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? No 60¢ 74¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+22%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 82¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 51¢ 54¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 46¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 45¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 37¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-26%)
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? No 59¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 21¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 33¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$7 +300%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1 +$5 +341%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$7 +326%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 30 $4 +$6 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $3 +$4 +164%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $7 +$5 +75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3 +$9 +257%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $8 +$3 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will PLC win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 20 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 20 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial elect Apr 20 $5 +$6 +127%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 20 $5 +$7 +127%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 20 $6 +$7 +104%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? BUY No 59¢ $2 2d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? BUY No 60¢ $7 5d
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 60¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 75¢ $5 17d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $2 17d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY No 21¢ $2 18d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 18d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 22¢ $1 19d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 22¢ $1 19d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? BUY Down 37¢ $3 20d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $6 20d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? BUY No 41¢ $3 32d
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $4 32d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 29¢ $2 32d
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 37d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 37d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 37d
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $5 38d
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 BUY Yes 21¢ $1 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 54d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 54d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY No 24¢ $2 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? BUY No 68¢ $7 55d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $2 55d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY No 27¢ $2 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.16 · official $65.16 (match) · 156 history records