Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed6a…4a6d crypto 943 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-2%) realized −$55 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%507W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days−$75
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$110
sports 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 +4.6% -5.4% 53% 48% -8.9%
≤30d 654 +0.1% -9.4% 49% 45% -12.6%
≤90d 942 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 44% -13.3%
all 942 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 44% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 44% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 39% -21.6%
15% -27.2% 34% -29.2%
20% -34.4% 31% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses507 / 435
Open positions1
Markets (closed)942 / 943
History coverage84d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 942 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 60¢ 94¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.72 · official $4.53 (match) · 2464 history records