Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed6a…019a crypto 51 markets active 4d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$322 (-16%) realized −$322 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$320
14 days−$320
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$195
culture 23% −$57
crypto 22% −$93
world 10% +$12
sports 5% −$9
politics 2% −$3
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 24% -25.0%
≤30d 42 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 24% -25.0%
≤90d 42 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 24% -25.0%
all 51 -32.7% -39.1% 31% 20% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 20% -24.9%
10% -44.9% 8% -32.0%
15% -50.3% 8% -38.6%
20% -55.1% 4% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$322
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage104d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 15 $48 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $78 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 14 $350 −$16 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BitBoy convicted? Jun 14 $126 +$2 +2%
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $63 −$3 -5%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $73 −$9 -12%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 14 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $287 −$154 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 14 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso Jun 14 $37 −$13 -35%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 14 $44 +$1 +2%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 14 $423 −$55 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Jun 12 $139 +$17 +12%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $60 −$6 -10%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? Mar 14 $5 −$2 -51%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison Mar 14 $11 −$3 -32%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Mar 14 $12 −$2 -19%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso Mar 14 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Mar 14 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Mar 14 $11 −$8 -69%
Will the New York Yankees win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Reg Mar 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1404 history records