Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed6d…9b95 politics 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$480 (+0%) realized +$478 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%34W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,126per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$14
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$90
other 30% −$141
sports 12% +$656
tech 3% −$4
world 2% +$14
crypto 2% +$22
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -16.3% -24.3% 7% 0% -10.1%
all 132 -2.3% -11.6% 26% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 9% -9.2%
10% -20.1% 8% -17.9%
15% -27.8% 7% -25.9%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,517) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$7 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$1,118
Realized+$478
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses34 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage152d
Avg bet$1,126
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $775 $777 +$2 (+0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $342 $342 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,405 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $278 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4,031 −$6 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,872 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $5,018 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,276 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,143 −$4 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,747 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,319 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,174 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $683 +$1 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,525 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,611 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 19 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $3,240 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,746 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $3,321 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,678 −$5 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,574 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 02 $271 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 02 $284 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $411 +$2 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $495 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,295 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,874 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3,069 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,939 −$3 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,410 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,404 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $4,758 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $342 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 5d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $504 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $505 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $517 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $518 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $278 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $278 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $775 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,391 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,393 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,356 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,287 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,289 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,141 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,142 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,582 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,584 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,502 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,504 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $995 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $997 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,416 20d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,418 20d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,406 23d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,408 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,118.39 · official $1,118.39 (match) · 402 history records