Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed6e…10d5 crypto 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+0%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%147W / 9L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$69
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 30 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 0% -9.0%
all 156 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.6% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.89 per $1 lost it wins $9.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses147 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage269d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $164 $164 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $164 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $161 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $160 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 28 $159 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $158 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? May 10 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 06 $158 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $157 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $156 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $156 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5AM ET Apr 16 $138 +$12 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $143 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $143 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 31 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 31 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $141 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 16? Mar 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $140 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 14? Mar 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14? Mar 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $137 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $136 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $137 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $136 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $135 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $134 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $164 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $164 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $163 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $163 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $163 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $163 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $162 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $161 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? SELL No 100¢ $160 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $160 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $159 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $159 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $158 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $158 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $158 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $157 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $157 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $156 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $156 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $156 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $138 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $130 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $13 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $138 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 99¢ $141 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.41 · official $164.41 (match) · 347 history records