Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed74…9f4a other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$11 (-41%) realized −$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$6
other 46% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +38.7% +25.5% 50% 50% -45.4%
≤30d 2 +38.7% +25.5% 50% 50% -45.4%
≤90d 2 +38.7% +25.5% 50% 50% -45.4%
all 2 +38.7% +25.5% 50% 50% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.5% 50% -45.4%
10% +13.4% 50% -50.6%
15% +2.5% 50% -55.4%
20% -7.6% 50% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +177%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 49m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 11h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 1¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 13¢ $10 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.05 · official $7.05 (match) · 9 history records