Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed79…1e49 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$371 (-6%) realized −$356 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%24W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$31
14 days−$230
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$345
crypto 29% −$396
sports 11% −$70
world 1% +$446
politics 1% −$50
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -97.6% -97.8% 0% 0% -99.6%
≤30d 17 +37.8% +24.7% 12% 12% -15.5%
≤90d 80 +8.1% -2.2% 29% 24% -7.0%
all 92 -2.4% -11.7% 26% 22% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 22% -19.2%
10% -20.2% 22% -26.9%
15% -27.9% 15% -34.0%
20% -35.0% 13% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$26 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$592
Realized−$356
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses24 / 68
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 99
History coverage250d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 42¢ $301 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 42¢ 40¢ $305 $287 −$18 (-6%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $206 −$173 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $135 −$22 -16%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 23 $16 +$495 +3176%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -94%
MegaETH FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 30 $56 −$32 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 24 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$16 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 24 $15 +$79 +528%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 24 $106 −$99 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 24 $8 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 22 $17 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$17 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 22 $1,531 +$9 +1%
Will USD.AI launch a token on April 22? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 21 $223 +$54 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $500 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 19 $17 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 17 $249 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 17 $15 +$29 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 1¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $306 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $310 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $28 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 23¢ $34 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 2¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 5¢ $3 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $33 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $94 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $91 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $135 20d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 23d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.11 · official $599.37 · 244 history records