Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed7a…af62 crypto 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-8%) realized +$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%72W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day73.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$2
other 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 43% -7.5%
≤30d 140 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 43% -7.5%
≤90d 140 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 43% -7.5%
all 140 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 43% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 43% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 43% -16.3%
15% -30.6% 43% -24.4%
20% -37.4% 43% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses72 / 68
Open positions5
Markets (closed)140 / 145
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day73.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 46¢ 35¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 50¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 50¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 23m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.63 · official $5.83 (match) · 225 history records