trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 50% | 0% | -7.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 45% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 45% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 24 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 54% | 4% | -6.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.2% | 4% | -6.7% |
| 10% | -19.7% | 4% | -15.7% |
| 15% | -27.5% | 4% | -23.8% |
| 20% | -34.6% | 0% | -31.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $36 | $36 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 14¢ | 13¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $17 | +$1 | +4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 06 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $58 | $0 | -0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 05 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 04 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 03 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 03 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? | Apr 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? | Apr 04 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Giants draft Mason Graham? | Apr 04 | $79 | +$1 | +1% |
| TikTok sale announced before April? | Apr 03 | $79 | +$1 | +2% |
| 2025 March hottest on record? | Mar 28 | $79 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? | Mar 27 | $79 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? | Mar 24 | $78 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Mar 23 | $74 | +$3 | +4% |
| Holy Cross vs. Navy | Mar 20 | $52 | +$23 | +45% |