Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed7b…dc73 weather 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$370 (+4%) realized +$537 · open −$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate71%39W / 16L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days+$101
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 43% +$248
finance 19% +$27
world 10% −$178
sports 9% +$261
other 7% −$367
economics 7% +$2
crypto 3% −$3
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.1% -23.2% 40% 27% -6.3%
≤30d 20 -9.2% -17.9% 55% 25% -5.9%
≤90d 48 -3.9% -13.1% 73% 23% -7.5%
all 55 -5.0% -14.1% 71% 20% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 20% -7.8%
10% -22.3% 11% -16.7%
15% -29.8% 9% -24.7%
20% -36.7% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$45 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$946
Realized+$537
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses39 / 16
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage107d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $903 $946 +$43 (+5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 70¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $93 −$92 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $152 −$46 -30%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $60 −$29 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $271 −$13 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $491 +$19 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $182 −$143 -79%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $260 +$135 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $248 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $255 −$13 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $155 −$40 -26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $171 +$129 +75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $300 +$100 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $201 −$116 -57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $368 +$368 +100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 09 $199 +$4 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 09 $25 +$3 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Jun 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Jun 09 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Jun 09 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 76°F or higher on April 23? Apr 28 $43 +$3 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 22 $181 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 9? Apr 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or higher on April 9 Apr 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or higher on April 8 Apr 09 $18 +$2 +9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 08 $194 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 6? Apr 07 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 58°F or higher on April 3? Apr 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or higher on April 3? Apr 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 03 $25 +$3 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $250 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1? Apr 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or higher on April 1? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26? Mar 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 26? Mar 27 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 26 $99 −$46 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $137 +$6 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 23 $2,404 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19? Mar 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19? Mar 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $93 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $36 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $0 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $9 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $22 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $26 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $212 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $151 15h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 17h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $551 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $257 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $496 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $150 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $182 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $169 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $257 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $252 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.15 · official $946.15 (match) · 279 history records