Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xed7d…5852 sports 213 markets active 5h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,556 (+23%) realized +$2,360 · open +$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%80W / 121L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$20
14 days−$603
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$2,816
other 25% +$44
crypto 14% −$294
tech 2% +$125
politics 2% −$13
world 1% −$63
culture 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -33.9% -40.2% 29% 29% -23.7%
≤30d 108 -47.5% -52.5% 20% 18% -10.0%
≤90d 111 -43.0% -48.4% 22% 19% +4.5%
all 201 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 36% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 36% +16.0%
10% -23.8% 33% +4.9%
15% -31.1% 30% -5.2%
20% -37.9% 25% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$25 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$2,576
Realized+$2,360
Unrealized+$196
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses80 / 121
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions12
Markets (closed)201 / 213
History coverage200d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $1,295 $1,358 +$63 (+5%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 76¢ 94¢ $770 $955 +$185 (+24%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 32¢ 57¢ $30 $53 +$23 (+78%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 72¢ 50¢ $70 $49 −$21 (-30%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-15%)
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+134%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $65 $5 −$60 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Gdansk: Hibah Shaikh vs Weronika Falkowska Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $30 +$8 +25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $20 +$49 +238%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$32 +311%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $31 +$100 +327%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $180 +$605 +336%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +96%
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Jun 14 $40 −$1 -3%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a White Spoon win season 2 of Culinary Class Wars? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 11PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Bills (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Hawks Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Pacers Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Jazz Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $31 5h
ITF Gdansk: Hibah Shaikh vs Weronika Falkowska BUY Weronika Falkowska 38¢ $2 5h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 5¢ $3 5h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5h
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 5h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 14h
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 37h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 5d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 29¢ $20 5d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 8d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 8d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 80¢ $30 8d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 8d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 77¢ $708 8d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 76¢ $202 8d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 8d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 26¢ $31 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $20 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 35¢ $10 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 45¢ $10 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 64¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,576.21 · official $2,576.22 (match) · 697 history records