Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed85…db4f crypto 921 markets active 0h ago coverage 225d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 224d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$202 (+0%) realized +$208 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate54%495W / 416L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 225d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$263
sports 18% −$2,290
other 10% −$299
world 7% −$20
finance 2% −$164
politics 1% +$60
tech 1% +$41
economics 0% +$23
weather 0% −$40
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +13.5% +2.7% 39% 25% -17.2%
≤30d 344 +3.3% -6.6% 31% 17% -25.8%
≤90d 462 -1.0% -10.5% 34% 17% -18.5%
all 911 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 15% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 15% -12.8%
10% -19.4% 8% -21.1%
15% -27.2% 6% -28.7%
20% -34.3% 5% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$208
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses495 / 416
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions10
Markets (closed)911 / 921
History coverage225d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 911 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 61¢ 50¢ $57 $47 −$10 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+69%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 17? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+300%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends Close Qualifiers The World 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? No 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 20? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+299%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$19 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$15 +151%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $4 $0 -11%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 17 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -55%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8 +$8 +108%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +73%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $3 +$3 +110%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$9 +133%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $44 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +253%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA L Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +835%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$28 +2322%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $42 +$5 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $2 −$1 -67%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +429%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$2 -14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $118 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 5¢ $2 10m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 23m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 35m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 51¢ $25 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 21¢ $12 2h
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 24¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 16¢ $8 2h
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? BUY No 19¢ $2 2h
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $1 2h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3h
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 3h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 71¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.18 · official $73.19 (match) · 3500 history records