Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
ED 0xed88…86de other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$16 (+7%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$24
sports 27% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +31.8% +19.3% 100% 100% +12.6%
≤30d 8 +31.8% +19.3% 100% 100% +12.6%
≤90d 8 +31.8% +19.3% 100% 100% +12.6%
all 8 +31.8% +19.3% 100% 100% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.3% 100% +12.6%
10% +7.8% 75% +1.8%
15% -2.6% 25% -8.0%
20% -12.1% 12% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 84¢ 84¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $46 +$5 +11%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $37 +$8 +22%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 AND Will New Jun 27 $10 +$2 +22%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 +$4 +34%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 26 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +34%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.45 · official $75.45 (match) · 22 history records