Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed89…00eb politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$7
world 26% −$2
other 17% −$6
sports 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -3.0% -12.3% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -2.3% -11.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,115) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage96d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 22 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,115 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 18 $12 −$3 -22%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $4 $0 -10%
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Apr 16 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 16 $168 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $31 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 53m
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 1h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 2h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $845 3h
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 3h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 3h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $324 3h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,170 3h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL No 100¢ $49 20h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 20h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 21h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,187 21h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 21h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,167 21h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY No 100¢ $37 21h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $865 22h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 22h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $282 22h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY No 100¢ $12 22h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,148 22h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,167 39h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $68 39h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 39h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,113 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records