Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed8d…9c21 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3401 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,717 (-63%) realized −$4,706 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day3401.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3401 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 31% -8.5%
≤30d 32 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 31% -8.5%
≤90d 32 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 31% -8.5%
all 32 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 31% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3401.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 31% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 6% -17.3%
15% -22.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -29.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
103.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$4,706
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$228
Trades / day3401.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 72¢ 100¢ $86 $118 +$32 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $84 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $224 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $86 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $180 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $146 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $408 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $239 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $226 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $352 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $65 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $133 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $90 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $213 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $217 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $134 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $249 −$14 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $140 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $223 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $224 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $414 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $505 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $79 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $560 −$27 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $110 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $98 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $78 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $521 −$16 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $443 −$19 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $394 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $268 −$9 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.03 · official $115.79 · 3500 history records