Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed8e…33c5 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% $0
politics 40% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 13 -0.0% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage101d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $134 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $67 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $67 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $134 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 21 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $66 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 4d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $66 15d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $66 15d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $66 19d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $66 21d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 33d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 34d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 34d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $66 38d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $66 39d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 65d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 66d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 68d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 68d
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $67 72d
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $67 73d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 75d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 75d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 83d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 84d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $67 91d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $67 92d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 94d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 94d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 97d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 97d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $67 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records