Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed90…2ba7 politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$69 (-15%) realized −$40 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$35
world 15% +$6
other 10% +$6
sports 8% −$24
finance 4% −$17
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -78.0% -80.1% 0% 0% -80.1%
≤30d 2 -31.1% -37.7% 50% 50% +2.4%
≤90d 21 -28.5% -35.3% 57% 48% -30.3%
all 23 -15.1% -23.2% 61% 52% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 52% -25.4%
10% -30.5% 22% -32.5%
15% -37.2% 13% -39.1%
20% -43.4% 9% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)23 / 42
History coverage116d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 67¢ 52¢ $36 $28 −$8 (-21%)
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-52%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 60¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $37 +$6 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 02 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April? Apr 29 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April? Apr 27 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 27 $14 −$11 -80%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 21 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $8 +$4 +54%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $26 −$26 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 21 $2 $0 +14%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $7 +$4 +48%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 11 $9 +$1 +13%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 02 $11 +$2 +22%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $11 +$4 +35%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +10%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026? Mar 12 $3 +$7 +223%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $3 34m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $6 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 77¢ $42 7d
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 20 BUY Yes 20¢ $2 7d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 65¢ $7 7d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 57¢ $2 7d
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 44¢ $5 7d
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 B BUY Yes 26¢ $3 7d
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY Yes 67¢ $1 40d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 67¢ $4 40d
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 B BUY Yes 41¢ $2 40d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 40d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 67¢ $2 40d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 40d
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 B BUY Yes 42¢ $6 40d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 67¢ $11 40d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.94 · official $175.69 (match) · 134 history records